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The United Nations projects that the world's population will number more than 9 billion people by the year 2045. Since we are already straining at the seams with 6.8 billion individuals, a 35% increase in the human population over the next 34 years raises several serious questions. Among them: Just how do we think we are going to feed all of these additional people?

There are some who believe that the gloomy predictions of Enlightenment thinker Thomas Malthus may yet be played out. In a Malthusian society the population will always rise faster than the food supply. This leads to “positive checks” on the population, such as famine and disease, which will bring the population level back to that of the food supply. Considering Malthus’s An Essay on the Principle of Population was written in 1798 and we have yet to experience a series of “positive checks” on the population, today most people believe that technological advances have and will continue to allow the food supply to increase faster than the population.

The Green Revolution and Factory Farms
Take the Green Revolution, for instance. Through the use of synthetic fertilizers, pesticides and hybridized seeds, farmers in India, Mexico and elsewhere were able to increase their crop yields by nearly 100% over the course of 20 years. Factory farms, or Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations, have also been used to keep up with the world meat demand, which has risen to more than 250 million tons per year.

While these methods have kept up with the growing population’s need for food, there have been many criticisms leveled at both the Green Revolution and factory farms. For instance, many of the synthetic fertilizers used are petroleum-based and therefore make agriculture dependent on Big Oil. Hybridized seeds are often sterile and keep farmers reliant on seed purchases from large companies like Monsanto. Many feel that this is an effective monopolization of the food industry.

Factory farms are criticized by animal activists, foodies and local residents alike. Animals are kept in appalling conditions that restrict their movement and damage their health. These animals are also pumped full of antibiotics and hormones to keep them healthy and make them grow faster. The waste generated by animals living in such close conditions can damage ground water supplies and create a horrible stench for neighbors.

Organics and the 100-Mile Diet
To address these concerns, different types of consumer-activist groups have sprung up over the past 20 years or so. The first is the organic-food movement. Organic food is produced without chemical fertilizers or pesticides. Supporters of the movement say that organic food is not only less poisonous, but also contains more 50% more vitamins and minerals than conventionally farmed foods.

Another group of food consumers work to follow the parameters of the 100-Mile-Diet. Under this diet, consumers try to purchase only food that was grown or raised within 100 miles of their locality. This is intended to cut down on the pollution and carbon footprint associated with shipping food over long distances, support the local economy and provide diners with fresher food that doesn’t have to be preserved for long-distance travel. Those who live in rural areas can probably eat locally for most of the summer. For those who live in cities, this is often significantly more difficult, although farmers markets and community gardens are available in many urban areas.

High-Tech Urban Farming Initiatives
There is also a growing urban farming movement that encompasses everything from reclaimed lots to rooftop gardens. Some of these projects are headed by apartment associations and local groups. Others are meant to improve urban health and are built in blighted areas by organizations such as Urban Farming.

Many people believe that high-tech urban farming initiatives are the wave of the future. For instance, the Science Barge is a floating hydroponic farm that aims to raise awareness about sustainability and urban food production. It is currently docked in Yonkers, New York. From the Science Barge have come organizations such as Gotham Greens, which is building hydroponic rooftop farms in Manhattan and Brooklyn. Thanet Earth is Britain’s largest sustainable greenhouse that not only supplies fresh local produce year-round, but also generates its own power through waste heat and gas emission produced by the growing plants.

These projects are all up and running today. Just over the horizon are ideas such as Dickson Despommier’s vertical farms, whereby skyscraper greenhouses would be built in urban centers. Not only would the produce be local, but the hydroponic methods of farming and the relatively sterile environment would eliminate the need for chemical pesticides and fertilizers.

So far, science has outstripped Malthus’ doom-and-gloom predictions—though with a high cost to both the quality of the food and the environment. This next round of grassroots farming initiatives could continue to feed the world in a safer, cleaner way.

Additional resources:
Organic Produce—Price vs. Value
Think Global, Munch Local
Swine Flu and CAFOs: Mum’s the Word
Monoculture Agribusiness: Harvesting the Seeds of Suicide
Become an Urban Farmer: Here's How
The Science, Business and Controversy of Genetically Engineered Seeds

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